Demonitisation

November 8,2016; The day when in a 45 minutes of speech The Prime Minister's announcement of the withdrawal of ₹1000 and ₹500 notes ranks among the most significant economic measures taken by his government. The audacious move has given birth to wild hopes of a decisive blow to the black economy, counterfeit currency & terrorism funding. It is also being lauded for its potential to convert India into a cashless economy. However, the disruptive impact of this decision is only now becoming clearer and dampening the celebratory mood that followed the announcement.

As far as I can gather
"The Government has rushed into a decision that is poor economics and may result in poor politics too."
While many are still hopeful that this "landmark initiative" will reap dividends eventually, upon deeper analysis I have come to the conclusion that it is nothing less than an unmitigated disaster and that’s because I can see what sort of consequences that’s going to come and here are the few reasons:

#Cash is an insignificant component of black assets. Opening foreign accounts anonymously is child's play today and given the anonymity it provides, it is a widely preferred option for those holding black money. Investments in gold and property are also preferred for a variety of reasons. Firstly, wealth stored as cash decreases in value with inflation while other types of assets appreciate with inflation. Secondly, storing large sums of cash is much more problematic (occupies more space, vulnerable to hazards) than storing the same value in gold. Finally, security problems with cash are much greater. Thus, "illegitimate cash is just the tip of the iceberg and dealing with it does not mean taking down the mammoth black economy."

#Counterfeit currency is more molehill than mountain. Much has been made of the "fact" that taking out higher denomination notes will render worthless the bulk of counterfeit currency in circulation today. But contrary to popular perception, the value of counterfeit currency is quite insignificant. at any given point of time ₹400 crore worth of fake notes were in circulation in the economy. This is merely 0.025% of the total budget outlay of ₹19.7 lakh crore as announced this fiscal. In comparison, just the printing cost of notes being taken out of circulation is approximately ₹12,000 crore. And just let me say this

"Is it sensible public policy to flush ₹12,000 crore down the drain to purportedly remove about ₹400 crore of fake currency?"

#Root for black money generation is untouched. The annual black economy is conservatively over 20% of our GDP. This means that the annual generation of black money is over ₹30 lakh crore which is greater than the entire amount of ₹17.77 lakh crore of cash in circulation. So, even if half the value of the withdrawn notes was black wealth and none of it was whitewashed, the black money destroyed would still be much less than the amount of black wealth generated yearly. It is clear from this that demonetization cannot do any long-lasting damage to the black economy since the roots of it remain untouched. EX-RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan words on this goes like "It (demonetization) if often cited as a solution. Unfortunately my sense is to find clever ways around it. It is not that easy to flush out the black money. Of course, a fair amount may be in the form of gold, therefore even harder to catch. I would focus more on the incentives to generate and retain black money. A lot of incentives are on taxes. More focus should be on tracking data and better tax administration to get at where money is not being declared. I think it is not very hard to hide your money that easily." 

#More than an Economic reform it’s a Political Motivated move and it will only going to create panic among the people (as we are seeing it already). This panic is leading to untold miseries with ATM's reporting long lines and various establishments refusing to offer change; some hospitals are even denying treatment. Had the BJP been more somber and pragmatic in its narrative and execution, rumor mongers would not have had such a field day and the move's implementation would have been less painful for the people. What about the “Labour” group of our country which earns their money on per day basis? Also, it’s November, a month where many marriages happen over the country, god knows how that family is going to manage everything so this move is all about "Wrong Timing" as well.

#Unprepared Government Move: Before making any move which probably going to affect the major population it’s the duty of gov. to be ready for every countermeasures and the gov. in this regard is visibly unprepared. Firstly, the RBI didn't have enough supply of smaller denomination notes and is supplying soiled 100 notes to meet the demand. Secondly, the new ₹2000 notes being released are smaller in size than the old notes and ATM's have not been modified to dispense them. Thus, ATM's are storing less cash and thus running out faster as they can only dispense ₹100 notes.

#Where is the infrastructure for a cashless economy? The argument that the move will spur a cashless economy is flawed.
First,
"How does replacing ₹1000 notes with ₹2000 ones help make the economy cashless?"

Secondly, merely depriving people of cash doesn't make an economy cashless. With only 46% banking penetration, only 22% internet connectivity, 19% of population without electricity connection (and others with unreliable connection) and only 1.2 million of 14 million merchants having point of sale devices, India simply doesn't have the infrastructure for a cashless economy. Another problem is the low level of digital literacy in India. Unless these real challenges are addressed, withdrawing the bulk of cash only creates chaos as we can now see.

#Some more reasons. Firstly, the people are desperate for cash, so much of the workforce that should be productively working is wasting long hours in unending queues at the banks and ATMs. Secondly, the abrupt call-back of 86% of cash, has brought the informal economy to a standstill—this sector is the worst affected, with the most marginalized suffering the most. Thirdly, the wide speculation on property and gold pricing will also undermine economic stability and reduce investors' confidence in India.

This move by Modi is Historic, no doubt in that but it’s hard for me to see anything positive in it (yet), maybe the whole situation & market gets stabilized after couple of months, no more long queues in banks or ATM but since this move is not just about short-term goals so I guess we all have to wait to see whether long-term goals will going to meet or not.

U.S. Presidential Elections 2016

The U.S. Presidential Elections 2016, doesnt feels like the last elections of U.S, nothing interesting or “eye catching” is there or something that makes people around globe keep an eye on it 24*7 though the last two standing candidates is what makes it “Only” interesting & the fact that it’s the presidential elections of Global Leader USA. People who are interested in Politics & Economics (like me) are still keeping their interest in every news related to it though I entered late but i guess i have quite a good perspective on these elections.

So as far as my perspective goes we can clearly see not many days are left and there are yet there are still huge number of uncertainties, now it’s not just about “Republicans Vs Democrats” it’s about “Hillary Vs Trump” but..Perhaps Hillary’s supporters will remember that their candidate is a corrupt criminal, that she has no agenda other than serving her own ambition, and that returning her to power enshrines elite politics at the top level. Perhaps they don’t show up in the numbers Hillary requires.Perhaps Trump’s supporters have been hiding from pollsters. Perhaps the polls don’t really represent Americans’ feelings on this election. Perhaps a Brexit-style shocker is in order.

But now it’s time for some real-world predictions. And so I’ll break this one down, state-by-state, point to point so to have a clear view on the overall elections situation & final predictions.In order for Donald Trump to win this election, he must win North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and Nevada, as well as one more state: New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia, Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania (Minnesota isn’t happening). His ground game is shabby. His enthusiasm, however, is high. So, let’s survey.

North Carolina: Clinton. Thus far, 3 million people have been showing interest towards Trump. Hispanic turnout is up, black turnout is down. Estimations as of October 20 saying that about 4,892,000 people is voting in North Carolina, out of about 2,642,000 I think will eventually vote. Based on the voting history and demographic characteristics of those people, I think Hillary Clinton leads in North Carolina by about 6 percentage points.” By the same token, FiveThirtyEight gives Hillary just a 50.6 percent to 49.4 percent lead over Trump in probability.

Florida: Clinton. In Florida, early predictions & voting doesn’t tell us much. According to Politico, “Democrats increased their lead over Republicans in casting pre-Election Day ballots to nearly 33,000.” Apparently, some 6.1 million ballots have already been cast, with Democrats leading Republicans by just 0.5 percent. But as Politico notes, Republicans vote more on Election Day – although independents are showing up in massive numbers. Hispanics are voting disproportionately in Florida, which bodes ill for Trump. Florida’s a true toss-up. The question will be the turnout game – and it’s hard to imagine that Clinton trails Trump there.

Ohio: Trump. CNN says that Hillary trails Obama’s 2012 numbers in Ohio. Early voting doesn’t look good for her. FiveThirtyEight estimates a 65.2 percent chance Trump wins the state. That’s largely because Ohio has a heavy population of non-college educated white voters, where Trump has a heavy electoral advantage. His Rust Belt appeal is real, and Ohio’s his state.

Iowa: Trump. Trump has a serious lead in Iowa. FiveThirtyEight has a 72 percent chance Trump wins the state. He’s been leading in the state for months. The latest Des Moines Register poll has Trump up seven points.

Nevada: Clinton. Trump’s being slaughtered in Nevada in the early vote predictions. About 770,000 votes have been cast, likely two-thirds of the vote. Let’s suppose that there is an Election Day turnout of 450,000 voters. Trump would probably need to win Tuesday by about 10 points to win. This is almost impossible, unless the Democrats decide not to turn out voters on Election Day.” FiveThirtyEight calls Nevada “relatively safe” for Clinton.

New Hampshire: Clinton. New Hampshire is incredibly close. Clinton has jumped back into a tie or the lead in the state after one week of Trump leading. Before that, Clinton had a massive lead in New Hampshire for months. Could Trump pull out the state? Sure. Is it unlikely? You bet. According to FiveThirtyEight, Trump’s got a 66 percent chance of losing the state.

Colorado: Clinton. Clinton is matching Obama’s numbers in early voting. On November 4, Republicans trailed Democrats in the early vote by 0.3 percent, with unaffiliated voters constituting 28 percent of the vote. But in early voting in 2012, Republicans led by 2 percent, and Romney lost the state by nearly five percent. So I am just keeping my fingers crossed, no miracles needed in this state for Clinton, as far as I can see it is surely her state.

Virginia: Clinton. Hillary’s got an 82.7 percent chance of winning Virginia according to FiveThirtyEight. This state used to be reliably Republican, but Republicans haven’t won it since 2004 – before that, Republicans won it every election since 1984. That’s a massive loss for Republicans, who lose 13 electoral votes every cycle. Much of the shift is due to the influence of Washington D.C.

Wisconsin: Clinton. Wisconsin has seen heavy early voting, but the polling out of the state looks devastating for Trump. The RealClearPolitics poll average has her up a whopping 6.5 points.

Michigan: Clinton. Clinton has a 4.7 percent lead in the state according to the RCP average, and a 78 percent chance of winning the state according to FiveThirtyEight. It would be a stunning turn of events for Trump to pull out the state.

Pennsylvania: Clinton. Pennsylvania was the state upon which Trump staked his early hopes, but those hopes are unlikely to materialize. Not much early voting happens in Pennsylvania, but FiveThirtyEight gives Trump just a 23 percent likelihood of a pickup here.

Trump will likely win the second district in Maine. That means he finishes up with 217 electoral votes, slightly better than Romney – he loses North Carolina but wins Ohio and Iowa. If Trump begins to collapse, the states he’s likeliest to lose are Ohio, Arizona and Georgia.

National polling tightened considerably last week. Now a gap has appeared again. The latest polls show Clinton with a widened gap again – anywhere from 3 to six points. RealClearPolitics’ poll average gives her a 2.9 percent lead in a four-way race; FiveThirtyEight puts her at a 3.3 percent lead. My hunch, based on Trump’s lack of a ground game and the fact that Trump will drive higher-than-expected voter turnout in opposition to him in leftist states, is that the gap will be larger than that – that it will be more like five points. Based on pure guesswork – and hey, I might get it wrong,  -- I’d estimate the final result as something like 49 percent for Hillary, 44 percent for Trump, rest for everyone else.

For me, I would like Hillary to win this overall elections not just because i hate Trump but simply because SHE’S QUALIFIED (i mean look at her accomplishments), the Lady has fought to bring women closer to equality, and what i love about her Stance on GLOBAL ISSUES whether its LGBT, Gun control, economical & political reforms one usually doesn’t see a Women of her caliber also with due respect “She get Shit done” and its about time Women takes up the mantle of “Leader of the Free World” and I wanna see that happen. 😀

The People who Jump !!

No-one says, “I am going to be judgmental to this person today, will not going to listen what they have to say no matter how true their part of the story is.”
Few people say, “I know whatever he said is true but I don’t think it is because I am always right & I trust my own gut feeling and instincts and also because whatever he says doesn’t fit in my part of the story.”
And it’s quite rare to have someone who says, “Yeah, I am really sorry to judge you before hearing your story, I shouldn’t have said that but you can understand that I was angry at that moment and not in the stage of listening to you but now I understand my mistake.”
Such kind of people are the one I like the most not because finally I got to prove that I was right because they realized their mistake and came back.

In fact, this year I got such few people back in my life thanks to “Apologizing Emails” I wrote to them, I wrote almost 11 emails to the people out of which 7 responded back and 5 people came back into my life and I realized how impatient was I to them. I realized my mistake and I said sorry though I came to realized it after couple of years and for some after half of a decade :P but hey, thanks guys for accepting me back.

The article is all about the people who jump to the conclusions without listening to other person. People who are just too stubborn and egoist to hear anything for one second what others have to say. They cling to their own views, own perspective and just sticks with it no matter how true the other person’s story or a point of view is, and you know what’s funny is even though the other person give them, show them every piece of evidence to prove them that whatever they think is wrong, they still keeps on ignoring it just because they don’t want to listen.

This year made me learn some very important lessons of life by getting back few people back in my life and from a very important person who left me.
You know, there comes a situation in everybody’s life where a person reacts impatiently, rudely, to a certain situation or a person and afterwards realizes how stupid and selfish were they to do such a thing. To be clear, it’s merely our vision, our perspective, our self-talk about whatever is going around us which makes us react. No-one is reasonable or to be more accurate, no one thinks they are being unreasonable. No-one wants to get proved wrong, no-one wants their “illusion” to break, everyone makes some story, everyone has certain belief, and just whenever someone comes in to tell them that “Hey !! This is wrong, listen to me or just look at this”, they simply ignore it and shout back. This is the most disgusting thing, trust me, I did it few times and I regretted it and so one of the most important thing I learned is “No matter how good your story is, how strong your facts are, how strong your belief is, always and I repeat ALWAYS listen to what others has to say”. There might be a chance that you miss out something, or that you might get a better suggestion to make your idea from just a start-up to a billion dollar company. This is what I am going to implement in myself from next year for sure as I don’t want to miss out any person in my life or to hurt them and definitely don’t wanna miss out any billion-dollar idea or opportunity. :D

This year I suffered, lot of things happened over a course of 8-9 months and I am not going to go in detail simply because it was horrible. If I have to summarize it, I would say..
“Looking over the ceiling as time flows, you sleep and woke up next day feeling exhausted, you look at the people around you and having no clue who they are, losing memories of over the past few years, a blurred vision always comes up which tells that there is something inside yours that you don’t know and it kills you from the inside, people try to make you come back from the situation but you know that this fight is going to be yours only and with oneself. In day-light you close your eyes and in night you get to see more clearly, you get accustomed so much to the darkness that even when you get near to the light at the end of the tunnel you don’t want to come out. I once saw three people ripping each other apart at the end of the corner of my room and that was okay until I saw the fourth person ripping himself apart, that 4^th person was me in the room.”
It took me almost 4 months to get back myself on my feet with all the answers & memories that I forgot, putting every missing pieces to fall back into the exact way it should have been. It was hectic but it was necessary as well.

My few best friends helped a lot to come out of this and, few people whom I told this or people who saw me like that cried in front of me, over the phone and I did whatever I can but still they did and I love you all so much and I wish you stay the same in my life forever.
This whole thing has told me one more important thing which is “Not everyone who promised you to stay with you, stays with you till the end.”

Even in this situation as well I get to see people jumping to the conclusion and not listening to me. Few people didn’t believed so I called them to have a look at me and to the whole situation, for few important people I went to their home but they were just to stubborn not to listen or I should say angry at that time and I know that their anger is something I understand but what I can’t understand is why they have any problem regarding the listening part?? Why people who blame you doesn’t want to listen to you?? Why people who think they are right doesn’t want to hear what other person has to say?? Let’s say if I think I am right about something then I should not fear about anything else or any person and I simply should not have any problem in hearing them out and even after everything if it turns out that I was wrong then there should not be any hesitation in saying “I am sorry”.
Every person is different, everyone has certain level of understanding and their own perspective to react and to see things, that’s why people don’t respond well when someone points out how unreasonable and illogical their “perspective” / “thinking” / “illusion” is. Our worldview makes it really difficult to be empathetic because seeing the world through the eyes of someone else take so much effort and very few people has that ability to listen to people even though they think they are right, such kind of people are the one who gets to be at the top and that’s true.

I lost few people (one was really important) who didn’t listened to me when I try to confront them with the true thing, I don’t know whether they will gonna realize their mistake or not but I wish they do because I don’t want to miss out anyone else just because of this stupid kind of misunderstanding.
Out of the rest, few of my friends are just so fucking stubborn they just doesn’t want to listen to anything, they think they are right and that’s it. Period. And what’s funny is even when you show them the truth they still don’t want to believe it (HAHAHA !! :D) As a friend I guess it’s our responsibility to make them realize that this is wrong, not accepting that you are wrong is worst thing and I am pretty sure we all going to make them see through this.
And even after everything you did if certain person doesn’t want to listen then don’t force him/her to listen because when you explain things to the people without their consent they think you are lying to them and this again is the most important thing I learned that “never ever explain yourself to anyone unless they ask for it because explaining certain things makes your truth less truthful”. So if they say “don’t talk”, then DON’T; if they say “I don’t want to listen”, then DON’T SAY ANYTHING and if they say “Just leave me alone”, leave the place at once without looking back but look back to them with a smile if they call you back (those kind of people I love :*).

It’s certainly possible to change someone’s point of view or a belief towards a certain thing but it takes time and patience and most of all it takes the realization that ‘Yes! What I said (or did) was wrong and its time to rectify that”. In the short run, our ability to treat same person differently in different situations means that we can seek out people and correct the differences among us. When we open the door for the people who wants to say something to us, we are more likely to create an impact that we always wanted. So just listen, listen to the people first before making any decision, before doing something, before saying something, before jumping to the conclusion, before predicting an end of the story because remember this forever that..

There are always two side to every story. Understanding is a three edged sword. Your side, Their side and the truth in the middle. Get all the facts before you jump to the conclusions.

In the end, it wasn't so much that there was an alternative narrative, there always was - but for us it came down to one belief: Which one do you want to believe? Which one suited you best? or perhaps more to the point: Which one told you the story that you were already telling yourself for so long.

Answers for Unknown..

One of the hardest things in life that I felt is to “Not knowing of things”, as being the person who likes to keep things simple, clear and brief it’s in my nature to get to know or to predict things or situations way before it happens and it is not like I dream about it, it’s the way I analyze upcoming scenarios. However few months back I realized it’s not that always easy to predict situations.

Waking up one day and realizing everything is not in your hand anymore, you don’t know what is going on, you have no idea what happened in the past, feels like you just don’t have anything in your hand to move ahead. The best thing I felt about the “Past” is, it lays the ground on which you make your step ahead, of course sometimes you overthink it repeatedly but you do just to make sure you don’t fall for the same shit again in the future. But for me there was nothing like that, everything seems new, it’s like there is nothing which you can correlate to. Every person feels different & new, some were new, some old; few things & places, you feel like you are in the wrong world or something, you do things but feels like it’s the first time you are doing it when everyone else is saying that you did it numerous times how could you not know it? You watch things and suddenly you got a "deja vu" feeling to it & the situation around you, Talking to the people who are saying “You seems different”, well yeah of course not knowing about the past & to lose memories, feeling of new to everything around is what makes yourself “Different” for people. They talk but they don’t feel it’s you whom they are talking too, some felt that you are just pretending to be who you are not, some loose trust, some stays with you to help you go through it all not alone, but in the end it’s you who push yourself ahead.

Every day was new to me, it’s like I am re-living life, starting fresh but how could it be called as “Fresh start” when you do have past behind you which you have no idea about. You don’t know what are the memories that you have, you have no idea about the situations you have faced in your past, or the people that you met, or the numerous moments that you have lived, I mean how could you as a person feels like “It’s fine?”, NO its not.
It is so frustrating to not know things for me, especially for a person who thinks a lot in his life, being an introvert, I do not take things lightly but to make any decisions to move ahead you got to have some base for it, that’s where it all came down on me so hard that I almost broke into pieces several times and then one day I felt, That’s it, I don’t want to feel like this and I started not to think anymore, lets re-make the base for the coming journey ahead.

As Eminem said,
"Life's handing you lemons;
make lemonade then.."

Forgetting all about past turns out to be best thing, you have new things to do, new people to meet, new perspective and new thoughts to every situations, to every people around you (Who stayed), new hobbies, new music, everything new and worst thing was losing people that was part of your past, of course you can’t make everyone stay in your life, if they trust you they will stay otherwise they don’t and I stopped explaining things to people very years before, it’s fucking disgusting thing, if someone says “Just leave me alone” or “Don’t talk to me anymore” that is a great thing, you have one less person to worry about and could make some room for another one, of course some people are crucial part of your life, no-one can take their place so you have to keep that place vacant and no matter how hard you try to fill it, trust me it never will so just accept that truth and move ahead, It hurts, you feel the emptiness, you will going to feel lonely, but in the end you have to accept that, so why not accept it before all of these depressing things comes to you. Don’t stay in the denial that “Will they going to come back or not?” Answer to that is “If that person do want to come back to you, why the hell did they left you in the first place?" #food_for_thought 
and even after everything that person did to you and whatever you went through there will always a room for that one special person in your life and I guess we should keep that room as it is.

So beginning again was not so bad after all for me, Feels good to start again, not knowing all about the past, not having a fucking clue about your past, It’s like to reborn yourself again, trust me :D (Thanks to god to erase all that past) and it’s good to change yourself, it is boring to be the same person that you were in your past, and accepting the thing that "If you can't know everything that is about to happen then why do you waster your time on that by overthinking about it again and again?" and it’s totally fine to “Not know about the Answers of Unknown” , it’s OK. I have many things unknown in my life now especially about my past but I don’t go there anymore, I stopped because all it makes me is sad and I want to be happy.

All you can do is enjoy what you have now;
 Be Happy, Be Kind, Be Ruthless, Be Relentless, Be Humble,
Be Yourself and above all..
Be Human.